Rebar prices yet time

Macroeconomic downturn, real estate and fixed asset investment growth slowed. Steel production is limited and inventory is too large, the industry oversupply difficult predicament completely different. Although speculative capital to participate in a technical rebound in demand exists, but bad accumulate Shanghai steel hard reversal, up yet time.

Macroeconomic appetite. May HSBC PMI final value of only 49.2, marking the lowest level in seven months, PPI fell for 15 consecutive months, HSBC PMI and PPI weak domestic industries from different sides confirmed. Since the state strictly controls the arbitrage, May export growth rate of only 1%, imports of negative growth. January-May fixed asset investment and real estate investment growth rate were lower than the January-April.

Declining economic data suggesting the full long road to recovery.

Supply and difficult to change. In late May the national average daily crude steel output down 3.14 million tons to 2.15 million tons, a loss of pressure steel mills began to cut. But with billet steel stocks are still historically high inventory, supply the steel industry as a whole is still very abundant. Round steel prices fell, the price of imported ore slowly with the fall, late Budie ore prices will reduce losses to the detriment of steel mills to continue production.

Downstream demand is worrisome. January-May national fixed asset investment up 20.4% nominal growth over the January to April fell 0.2 percentage points. Real estate investment rose nationwide from January to May nominal increase of 20.6% over January to April, down 0.5 percentage points. Overall, 1-May domestic fixed asset investment, real estate investments are down slightly. Economic slowdown, companies lack confidence in the market outlook, the investment will is not strong. While June is generally off-season consumption of building materials, but the domestic industrial production recovery is weak, lackluster consumer panels.

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